Reports (not denied by India) that the USA had 'for the first time provided real-time details to their Indian counterparts on the Chinese positions and force strength in advance of a PLA incursion' into Tawang at the LAC in December 2022, helping India thwart China's expansionist designs, show how operationally effective the USA-India friendship has become on the ground. A engaging excerpt from Sreeram Chaulia's must-read new book, Friends: India's Closest Strategic Partners.
The government on Thursday banned exports of non-basmati white rice to boost domestic supply and keep retail prices under check during the upcoming festive season. There would be no change in export policy of par-boiled non-basmati rice and basmati rice, which forms the bulk of exports, the food ministry said in a statement. Non-basmati white rice constitutes about 25 per cent of total rice exported from the country.
The RBI interest rate decision, industrial production data for June and the ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the stock markets this week, analysts said. Other major factors such as global market trends, the movement of oil prices and the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence trading, they added. "The market will have an eye on the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which will be announced on August 10, 2023. We are heading towards the last batch of Q2 earnings of key companies such as Adani Ports, Coal India, Hero MotoCorp, Hindalco and ONGC, among others, which will lead to stock-specific movement," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
India is a great power that determines its national interests and chooses its partners, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said, describing as "completely unjustified" the "enormous pressure" on New Delhi due to its energy cooperation with Moscow.
Equity benchmarks ended modestly higher on Friday after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate in an effort to cool stubbornly high inflation and defend the rupee. Continuous foreign fund inflows into the capital markets and softening crude oil prices also helped the bourses regain momentum, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended 89.13 points or 0.15 per cent higher at 58,387.93 after facing volatility during the fag-end of trade. During the day, it climbed 350.39 points or 0.60 per cent to 58,649.19. The broader NSE Nifty went up by 15.50 points or 0.09 per cent to finish at 17,397.50.
'What my Labour government will seek with India is a relationship based on our shared values of democracy and aspiration. That will seek a free trade agreement (FTA), we share that ambition, but also a new strategic partnership for global security, climate security, economic security'
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
The Centre plans to create a special window for strategically important investors such as sovereign wealth funds and pension funds that wish to invest over Rs 3,000 crore through a single transaction.
Capital dumping is being used by foreign e-commerce firms to subsidise and engage in predatory pricing, oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries (RIL) has told the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham) in an internal document. The document alleges that this is leading to massive unemployment and financial distress among small merchants and kirana stores. It consists of various recommendations and proposed changes that deal with Press Note 2 of 2018 (PN 2), which RIL wanted Assocham to present to the government, according to sources.
'Like Nehru, too, Modi has found dealing with Beijing more and more difficult and has adopted an increasingly assertive approach towards managing India's northern neighbour.'
The trigger that led Japan and the Philippines to ink the deal was because of the deteriorating security situation in the South China Sea. China's coast guard increased the frequency and intensity of incursions into Philippine waters, provoking the Philippines to take countermeasures to deter China, explains Dr Rajaram Panda.
Bangladesh is in turmoil, which is not good news for India, which shares a porous 4000 km border with it. There is a danger of fundamentalism growing there, and India has to move in to reset its ties with the new dispensation before China and Pakistan make capital out of it, alerts Ramesh Menon.
Speaking at a programme in Kolkata on Tuesday night, he said that in the past, even the US has been appreciative of the fact that the Chabahar port has a larger relevance.
The country's exports are expected to contract by 5.8 per cent and imports by 11.3 per cent during the second half of the current financial year, though implementation of several measures by the government would help support exports going forward, according to the Economic Survey 2021. With gradual recovery of economic activities, the survey said that imports and exports have picked up. During the first half of 2020-21 (April-September), exports dipped by 21.31 per cent to $125.25 billion while imports declined by 40 per cent to $148.69 billion.
The Sensex jumped 412.23 points on Friday, braving heavy volatility during the day, amid the Reserve Bank of India maintaining status quo on the benchmark lending rate and buying in index heavyweights Reliance Industries Limited and ITC. The BSE Sensex climbed 412.23 points or 0.70 per cent to settle at 59,447.18. During the day, the benchmark hit a high of 59,654.44 and a low 58,876.36. The Nifty also gained 144.80 points or 0.82 per cent to finish at 17,784.35.
'If Modi were to be elected, he would be part of a coalition government, and within that he would have to take this minority into account. Muslims cannot relate to the idea of Hindu nationalism. Although it is presented as a pan-Indian idea, it appears to them to be exclusive.'
Equity benchmark Nifty scaled the psychological milestone of 21,000 in afternoon trade on Friday, and the Sensex touched its all-time intraday high of 69,888.33 after the central bank's decision to keep policy rates unchanged in line with market expectations. The 50-share benchmark index opened on a bullish note, after taking a breather on Thursday, and rose to 21,006.10. As many as 25 stocks were trading in the green, and 24 stocks defied the broader market and were trading in the negative territory.
JSW Steel was the biggest gainer on the Sensex chart, rising 2.68 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Titan, ITC, Tech Mahindra, NTPC, Reliance Industries and Larsen & Toubro. In contrast, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Asian Paints and Axis Bank were major laggards.
The central bank had in July last year imposed curbs such as doubling of margin requirement and a ceiling on position limits on exchange-traded currency derivatives.
With the reality of coalition politics staring the BJP in its face, this was inevitable, points out Ramesh Menon.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have pulled out $3.5 billion from India's equity markets so far this month. The selling comes on the back of election-induced volatility and the rotation of flows from India to China, where stocks are available at half the valuations. If the selling pressure remains at the current level, this will be the highest FPI pullout since January 2023.
Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu's party secured a 'supermajority' in Parliament by winning over 60 seats in Sunday's crucial parliamentary election, seen as a litmus test for the pro-Beijing politician whose policies are being closely watched by both India and China amidst regional power dynamics.
India's exports are expected to touch $360 billion in the current fiscal from $312.35 billion in 2013-14, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
Clarifying norms for single brand retail trading, government on Tuesday allowed foreign investors to conduct business through more than one joint venture in India.
The Reserve Bank has told the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the objective of frequent interventions in the forex market is to curb excessive volatility, dismissing the Fund's rationale for reclassifying India's exchange rate regime. The IMF, following the Article IV consultation with the Indian authorities, reclassified the status of the exchange rate regime to "stabilised arrangement" from "floating" for period between December 2022 to October 2023. India's Executive Director at IMF K V Subramanian and Senior Advisors Sanjay Kumar Hansda and Anand Singh questioned the selection period adopted by the Fund for analysis and also reclassification of the country's exchange rate regime.
Given the concerns around trade wars that threaten to jeopardise global capital flows as well, attracting foreign capital needs to be a policy priority, says Neelkanth Mishra.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
'The challenge in India will be reviving consumption/investment.' 'If the negative surprise in earnings is very sharp or lasts longer than March, it can trigger a sharp sell-off.'
Improved monsoon, solid fiscal performance, and capex push by the public and private sectors augurs well for India's macroeconomic stability and growth, the finance ministry's monthly economic review for June 2023 said. But the report said that while India's domestic fundamentals remain strong, negative cross-border spillovers and adverse global developments could act as a deterrent in achieving the high growth path this financial year. "An improved matching of aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the Indian economy underpins the progress made in the control of domestic inflation and the consequent strengthening of macroeconomic stability," the review said.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and movement of oil benchmark Brent crude would dictate terms in the domestic markets this week, analysts said. Equity markets, which fell nearly 3 per cent last week, may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. "This week marks the September month Futures and Options (F&O) expiry, which is expected to bring about volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
The unilateral pressure by US administration on India, at the behest of US Business Associations lobby through US International Trade Commission investigations and request to USTR to enlist India under Priority Foreign Country under Special 301 review, lacks legitimacy under WTO framework, the signatories to the letter said.
'Higher valuation remains the only spoiler for equities.'
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors, outcome of state elections and RBI's interest rate decision are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "Global markets are currently in a fabulous mood. The US 10-year bond yield and the dollar index are also cooling off, which gives strength to the market. These factors will be closely monitored, as they have the potential to influence market sentiment," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd. On the political front, the results of assembly elections in five states are eagerly anticipated, Gour said.
Applicants for Indian citizenship under the Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019 (CAA) can submit any of nine documents, including valid or expired passport, ID cards and land tenancy records, to prove he or she is a national of Afghanistan or Bangladesh or Pakistan.
Titan was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 3.5 per cent, followed by Kotak Bank, SBI, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finance, HUL, Axis Bank and Sun Pharma. On the other hand, NTPC, Tech Mahindra, PowerGrid and Infosys were the laggards.
Bibek Debroy raised seven questions about the new institution.
He urged China to bolster the flow of its tourists to the Maldives.
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